Maldives Withdraws 2022 Chagos Letter as Air Corps Expansion Signals a More Assertive Sovereignty Strategy

The Government of Maldives has formally withdrawn a 2022 letter issued by former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih that altered the country’s position on the United Nations General Assembly Resolution concerning the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion on the separation of the Chagos Archipelago from Mauritius. President Dr Mohamed Muizzu communicated the decision to the Prime Minister of Mauritius, marking a significant shift back to the Maldives’ earlier stance.

The announcement coincides with a period of rapid defence restructuring, including the establishment of the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) Air Corps and the rollout of structured drone operations, developments that are reshaping the country’s ability to monitor and defend its maritime domain.

A Reversal Rooted in Strategic Concerns

Since assuming office on 17 November 2023, the current administration has reviewed the Maldives’ submissions in the ongoing ITLOS case on maritime boundary delimitation. The President’s letter states that the previous administration’s mid‑proceedings shift “adversely and detrimentally” affected the Maldives’ interests, describing the move as unjustified and lacking due process.

A national enquiry will now be established under Article 115(o) of the Constitution to investigate how and why the change occurred.

The government also highlighted historical evidence of Maldivian ties to Foalhavahi (Peros Banhos), including a 16th‑century royal decree asserting sovereignty, a reminder that the Maldives sees itself as having longstanding interests in the region.

Air Corps: A Necessary Capability, But Still in Its Infancy

The timing of the diplomatic reset aligns with the Maldives’ push to build credible aerial surveillance capability. The launch of the MNDF Air Corps is a milestone, but from an aviation and military standpoint, it is also a long‑overdue correction to a structural vulnerability.

For decades, the Maldives, a nation spread across 900,000 square kilometres of ocean operated without a dedicated aerial wing capable of sustained maritime surveillance. This left the country dependent on surface vessels, foreign partners, and ad‑hoc arrangements for tasks that modern militaries consider baseline requirements. The Air Corps is a step forward but it is not yet a fully mature capability.

Drone Operations: High Potential, But Not a Silver Bullet

The introduction of long‑endurance drones has been widely welcomed, and rightly so. For a small island nation, drones offer reach, persistence, and affordability that manned aircraft cannot match.

However, from an operational perspective, drones are not a replacement for a comprehensive air capability.

Strengths

• Long‑range maritime surveillance

• Rapid deployment for SAR and environmental monitoring

• Evidence‑gathering for maritime boundary issues

• Cost‑effective patrols

Limitations

• Weather vulnerability

• Bandwidth and data‑link dependency

• Limited deterrence value compared to manned aircraft

• No airlift, no medevac, no rapid‑response transport capability

Drones strengthen the Maldives’ situational awareness, but they do not solve the broader challenge of air mobility and rapid response across a dispersed archipelago.

A More Assertive Sovereignty Posture

The withdrawal of the 2022 letter, the establishment of a national enquiry, and the expansion of aerial capabilities all point to a government seeking to reassert control over its maritime narrative and operational readiness.

From a defence perspective, the message is clear:

Diplomatically, the Maldives is correcting what it views as a strategic misstep.

Operationally, it is trying to ensure such vulnerabilities do not recur.

Militarily, it is building the tools needed to independently monitor and protect its waters.

The Air Corps and drone operations do not directly determine the outcome of the Chagos issue but they strengthen the Maldives’ ability to understand, document, and defend its maritime interests.

Constructive Engagement Continues

Despite the firm stance, President Muizzu reaffirmed the Maldives’ commitment to working with Mauritius and other international partners to pursue a “fair, balanced, and regionally stable solution” consistent with international law.

The combination of diplomatic recalibration and capability development reflects a Maldives that is seeking both legal clarity and operational credibility.