Strengthening El Niño Raises Concerns for the Maldives

El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific Ocean, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific now exceeding +2.0°C. The Niño 3.4 index has also continued to rise, reaching +1.8°C in mid-August, with other Niño regions recording significant warming.

The ocean and atmosphere are both now showing clear El Niño characteristics. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the event is expected to strengthen further towards the end of 2026, raising the likelihood of wider global impacts on rainfall, temperatures and storm activity.

The Maldives Meteorological Service (MMS) is closely monitoring the development, given the potential implications for the Maldives and its climate-sensitive sectors.

Coral Reefs Under Threat

One of the most significant concerns is the risk of marine heatwaves. Higher sea-surface temperatures can place severe thermal stress on coral reefs, increasing the likelihood of coral bleaching and damage to marine ecosystems.

Impact on Fisheries

Changes in winds, currents and ocean mixing associated with El Niño can influence the distribution of important tuna species, including skipjack and yellowfin tuna.

Ocean warming can also deepen the thermocline, limiting upwelling and reducing nutrient availability and plankton productivity. These changes can affect fish distribution and abundance, potentially reducing catch rates and increasing the effort required by fishermen.

Tourism

The health of coral reefs is particularly important for the Maldives’ tourism industry, with reef degradation potentially affecting diving, snorkelling and other marine-based activities.

At the same time, higher temperatures can increase demand for air conditioning and cooling, placing additional pressure on electricity consumption and power systems.

Agriculture and Rainfall

Changes in the timing and distribution of rainfall could disrupt agricultural cycles and affect crop production. This is particularly important for local farming, where seasonal rainfall plays an important role in cultivation.

Aviation

Changes in rainfall, temperature and storm activity associated with El Niño could also have implications for aviation operations in the Maldives. Increased rainfall, thunderstorms, wind shifts and periods of reduced visibility can affect flight operations, particularly at airports and during approach and departure phases.

For an island aviation network operating across widely dispersed atolls, continued monitoring of seasonal weather patterns will be important for flight planning, operational preparedness and airport management as El Niño conditions evolve.

September - November 2026 Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlook for September to November 2026 indicates notable differences between the northern, central and southern parts of the country.

In September, below-normal rainfall is expected in the northern atolls, while above-normal rainfall is forecast for the central and southern atolls.

For October and November, above-normal rainfall is expected across the northern and parts of the central atolls, while the southernmost atolls are more likely to experience below-normal rainfall.

The outlook highlights the importance of continued monitoring and preparedness as El Niño develops. For a country highly dependent on its marine environment, climate-sensitive agriculture and tourism, understanding these changing conditions will be important for planning across key sectors.