Europe May Have Only Six Weeks of Jet Fuel Left, IEA Warns

Europe could face jet fuel shortages as early as June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global fuel flows and push prices to record highs.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said Europe has “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left” unless it can replace at least half of its usual imports from the Middle East a region that historically supplied around 75% of Europe’s jet fuel imports.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Global Shock

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical export corridor for refined jet fuel from Gulf producers, has been effectively closed for more than six weeks following heightened tensions involving Iran, the US and Israel. The shutdown has sent European jet fuel prices soaring to an all‑time high of $1,838 per tonne, more than double pre‑conflict levels.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol told the Associated Press that if the blockage continues, flight cancellations could follow as physical shortages emerge.

Europe Scrambles for Replacement Supplies

European countries are urgently sourcing alternative supplies from the United States and Nigeria, with the IEA noting a rapid acceleration in US jet fuel exports in recent weeks. However, even if all additional US shipments were redirected to Europe, they would replace just over half of the lost Middle Eastern volumes.

The agency modelled several scenarios:

• If Europe replaces less than 50% of Middle Eastern imports:

→ Physical shortages may appear at select airports, leading to flight cancellations and demand suppression.

• If Europe replaces around 75% of lost supply:

→ Shortages could still occur, but not until August.

The IEA warned that European markets will need to “work harder to attract further replacement cargoes” to maintain adequate inventories through the summer travel peak.

Analysts Expect Localised Shortages

Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, said shortages remain possible even if Gulf supplies resume soon.

He noted that major hubs such as London Heathrow would likely be prioritised over smaller airports, but warned that the supply chain would still need five to six weeks to stabilise once flows restart.

Airlines Already Feeling the Impact

Fuel typically accounts for 20–40% of airline operating costs, and carriers across Europe have begun adjusting operations:

• EasyJet reported an additional £25 million in fuel costs in March alone.

• Several airlines have introduced surcharges, trimmed schedules, or reduced capacity.

• Airport operators have warned of potential disruptions if the situation persists.

EU Monitoring the Situation

The European Commission said this week that there is currently “no evidence of fuel shortages” within the EU, but acknowledged that supply issues could arise “in the near future.”

Oil and gas coordination groups are meeting weekly, and the Commission president is expected to announce further energy measures next week. Meanwhile, Airports Council International Europe has warned that the continent could face jet fuel shortages within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.